Rare whisky sales slump in 2024

The volume and value of rare whisky sold at auction plunged by double digits in the year to September 2024 with higher-priced bottles hit the hardest.

The ninth Whisky Intelligence report by Noble & Co explored the current state of the secondary market for fine and rare whisky.

Between October 2023 and September 2024, the report noted a 16% decline in volume and an 18% decrease in value, as demand continues to drop for rare whisky.

Noble & Co found that the rate of decline is accelerating based on results from the third quarter (Q3), covering July 2024 to September 2024. Within this period, rare whisky plummeted by 24% in volume and fell by 34% in value.

The report said: “2024 has been a difficult year for the fine and rare whisky auction market, having faced persistent macroeconomic challenges like high-interest rates, inflation, the reduced spending on luxury goods related to cost of living, and geopolitical instability all weighing heavily on behaviour and investment decisions of the consumers.”

The report noted that declines are also being seen across other luxury assets, such as watches, wine and fine art, as buyers exercise caution and sellers hold back on their goods.

In terms of price brackets, the report found that there were smaller declines in value at the lowest price tiers for whisky.

The £1,000 (US$1,276) to £10,000 (US$12,761) bracket saw its value fall most this year, by 32%, while volume decreased by 34%. For Q3, value was down by 25%.

Volumes for bottles between £100 (US$127) and £1,000 plunged by 24% in the first nine months of 2024 versus the same period in 2023. During Q3, this segment was down by 34% in value.

Speyside leads the market

The report also noted that Speyside whiskies achieved a higher price on average (£854 in the 12 months to September 2024) while Lowland whiskies (which fetched an average of £397) are still a small part of the market, lagging in volume and price performance.

The Macallan was the top brand by value and volume, however it plunged by 41% and 51% respectively in the 12 months to the end of September 2024. Noble & Co attributed its decrease in part to a slowdown in new releases, but it expects the brand to bounce back due to its 200th anniversary this year.

At Sotheby’s, the average global bottle price is about £15,000, according to Johnny Fowle, vice-president and global head of whisky at the auction house.

In the report, Fowle noted a “steady decline in pricing” over the last few years.

“This is mostly across the board, but on occasion prices still go up or stay solid,” he continued. “Noticeably, the bottles which went up sharpest in value came down proportionally.”

He also highlighted that Japanese whisky “went up very quickly and came down again very quickly”.

Fowle added: “We’ve pretty much reset back to where pricing was at in 2020/2019 now. The issue that we have, though, is that during that time, distillers themselves started increasing prices. And while the secondary market has gone back down, this isn’t the case with the primary market.

“Anything bought within the last probably five years is a difficult proposition to try and sell at auction. If you bought something in 2020 to 2023, the likelihood is you’ve overpaid.”

Sotheby’s bets on American whiskey

Fowle has also noticed a “swing from East to West” in terms of the buyer demographic with America making up the shortfall from Asia collectors. Sotheby’s has also been selling more American whiskey than it used to, Fowle explained, with younger buyers (in their 30s to late 40s) now making up the auctioneer’s main audience.

Fowle believes that American whiskey will become more in demand on the secondary market in the future, but Scotch will remain at the top.

“I think that American whiskey is going to catch up a lot. I think American whiskey’s average price will increase a lot from where we currently are. If my money had to be put anywhere, I’d probably put it in American whiskeys. Kentucky Bourbons specifically.”