Alcohol industry should brace for 'recovery' in 2025 as 2023 shows declines – IWSR

In a press release issued earlier this week, research group IWSR Drinks Market Analysis estimated that total beverage alcohol (TBA) was down 1% in volumes in 2023, although value sales inched up 2%. While beer volumes slipped 1% in the 12-month period, wine remains in “structural decline”, posting a 4% slide year-on-year.

Spirits volumes were flat, IWSR said, with the US market delivering a 2% decrease, the country’s first volumes decline in “nearly 30 years”.

Despite acknowledging the appearance of “some more positive signs” for TBA in recent months, IWSR warned that ongoing inflationary pressures mean that TBA volumes are likely to rise by only 0.4% in 2024 versus last year.

“When recovery comes,” IWSR noted, “growth [for TBA] is expected to be relatively modest, with volume and value both rising at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of +1% between 2023 and 2028 – with the main value growth coming from India, China and the US.”

On the more positive side, the company flagged strong showings in South Africa and Brazil for brewers, while wine brand owners were reminded of “the strong appeal of premium rosé in key markets such as the US, the UK and Australia”. In spirits, a healthy 25% value jump for agave-based spirits outside of Mexico and the US suggests a bright international future for tequila brand owners, who would do well to push for increased shelf space from the “declining gin category” in the likes of the UK and Spain.

The no-alcohol segments in all three alcohol categories are also opportunities for future growth as “moderation enters the mainstream”, IWSR added.

“Moderation … is being embraced by consumers for financial as well as health reasons, leading to long-term lifestyle changes,” the company said. “Regulatory pressures in a number of global markets reinforce these trends, as does the influence of guidance on alcohol consumption from governments and world agencies.”